[Avodah] Yom Kippur Risk/Reward

[Rich, Joel via Avodah]

Over Yom Kippur I got to thinking about the Mishna in Yoma concerning whether an alternate Cohen Gadol or wife is chosen. What are the factors to be considered? The more I thought about it, the more I realized this question was a subset of a more general issue of how Chazal viewed risk/reward tradeoffs.

So what were some of the tradeoffs that the commentaries read into the different Talmudic cases of whether we are concerned for mortality?
 1. What time period are we concerned about? (exposure period) [Zman merubeh or aman muat] 2. What's at stake [kapparat klal Yisrael or mitzvah b'alma] 3. How do we evaluate alternative scenarios [replace kohain gadol vs. using an unmarried one] 4. Is the risk truly random? (Mortality as a random variable vs. punishment/destiny)
 5. Is there a materiality threshold or do we need worry about the perfect storm (ruin theory)?
 6. Is the risk to an individual or a group?
 7. Is the risk predictable? Is it sudden onset?

KT
Joel Rich

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