[Avodah] tannur shel achnai

[rabbirichwolpoe at gmail.com]

Plz post

Micha:
"However, that would also mean that safeiq
plus mi'ut would become rov -- 50% + 5% is still greater than 50%. But
in practice, mi'ut bemaqom sofeiq lo amrinan!"
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A few notes:
Disclaimer I took ONLY  one semester of probablity and staistics so I know very little...

It appears from Yore Dei'ah that a safeik is almost always approximately 50-50

In terms of Rov (excluding the case of "chad bitrei") it seems to need more than a slight rov.  IOW 51% is not enough to be mevareir a solid safeik rather more is needed.

I have tried to see if the Rov of s'feik s'feika is close to the first or 2nd standard deviation. (Ostensibly a 75% probability all things being equal)  Iow I am trying to harmonize scientific stats with Halachic norms.  And So far it hasn't flown..

And I still don't get the logic for kavua nor have I heard an explanation that clicks with me so far.  (I guess g'zeira works best)

KT
RRW
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