[Avodah] Mumcheh Kemeia

[Micha Berger]

The chatter I see among Daf Yomi studiers indicates y'all had
to Shabbos 61a yesterday, and what defines a kemeia mumcheh.
Chazal appear to define expertise in the same terms as chazaqah
-- it it works three times.

Double blind studies weren't invented yet. So, if the kemeia works
3 times out of 40, it's a kemeia mumcheh? And if the norm is that
2 or 3 of the 40 would have gotten healthier? It would still fit
the definition and yet not fit what we today would call evidence.

Or, would Chazal more concerned about placebo effect, and therefore
once a kemeia or its author had a reputation of being solid, it was okay
to wear on Shabbos. Or even if not, maybe it's the trust in the kemeia
that matters for hilkhos Shabbos, the person's motive for wearing it,
not whether kelapei Shemaya galya the thing would work

Anyway, I wish I could tie this train of thought in with a sad piece
of news from yesterday, the passing of R Nachum Eliezer Rainobitch.
What would the author of Probability and Statistical Inference in ancient
and medieval Jewish Literature (Univ of Toronto Press, 1973) say about
how Chazal determined the effectiveness of a kemeia'?

Anyone know?

Tir'u baTov!
-Micha

-- 
Micha Berger                 Today is the 28th day, which is
http://www.aishdas.org/asp   4 weeks in/toward the omer.
Author: Widen Your Tent      Malchus sheb'Netzach: What role does
- https://amzn.to/2JRxnDF    domination or taking control play in building brotherhood?