[Avodah] How long did Nevuchadnetzar reign?

[kennethgmiller at juno.com]

This post has questions about the first two Rashis at the top of Megila 12a. If you're not familiar with that gemara (which begins in the middle of 11b and concerns the calculations made by Balshatzar, Achashverosh, and the Gemara itself, regarding the 70 years of galus) then this thread is not for you. My chavrusa (Steve Karp) and I have been stuck on this section for quite a while, and we'd love some help.

The gemara at the bottom of 11b concludes that part of Balshatzar's mistake was that he counted certain years as full years, but actually they were "m'kutaos" - cut-off years. This is supported by a braisa at the top of 12a, which says that "one more year" was needed for Balshatzar's calculation.

The second Rashi on 12a ("Od Shana Achas l'Bavel") explains the calculation in light of this braisa. 45 years of Nevuchadnetzar's reign, minus one year because Yehoyakim didn't go into galus until Nevuchadnetzar's second year, plus 23 years of Evil Merodach, and 3 years of Balshatzar, totals 70 years. But the braisa says that "one more year" was needed, because the above periods totaled only 69 nears, not 70. One year of Daryavesh Madaa completes the seventy.

This Rashi does *not* explain where the error was. This information *is* given in the first Rashi on the daf ("Tanya Nami Hachi"), which explains that a year got "swallowed" between the reigns of Nevuchadnetzar and Evil Merodach. Or, as my chavrusa and I prefer to phrase it, Nevuchadnetzar's last year *overlapped* Evil Merodach's first year. Thus, although a simple calculation of 45+23 yields 68, in actuality only 67 years elapsed for the two reigns. (Deducting Nevuchadnetzar's first year, and adding 4 for Balshatzar and Daryavesh gives us exactly 70.)

Here's the part that has been driving my chavrusa and me crazy:

Rashi seems to accept the idea that Nevuchadnetzar reigned for 45 years. We believe he only reigned for 44. Proof appears below.

The gemara on 11b *seems* to accept that he reigned for 45 years. But actually, that was not the gemara's view; it was only the gemara's explanation of Balshatzar's calculation of the 70 years. By the time we get to 12a, Balshatzar's view has been thoroughly discredited. Yet Rashi still accepts this detail.

Let's take a look at the source of these "45 years". It is about halfway down on 11b. "U'Nevuchadnetzar, minalan d'arba'in v'chamesh shnin malach?" Literally, "From where do we know that Nevuchadnetzar was king for 45 years?" (But my chavrusa and I prefer to translate it, in context, "Why does Balshatzar think that...") The gemara answers:

"The exile of Yehoyachin occurred in the 7th year of Nevuchadnetzar's conquest of Yehoyakim, which was the 8th year of Nevuchadnetzar['s reign]... and in the 37th year of Yehoyachin's exile, Evil Merodach [became king]... Eight plus thirty-seven makes the 45 of Nevuchadnetzar."

But that math is faulty.

If Yehoyachin was exiled in the 8th year of Nevuchadnetzar's reign,
then the 2nd year of Y's exile was the 9th year of N's reign.
And the 3rd year of Y's exile was the 10th year of N's reign.
The 4th year of Y's exile was the 11th year of N's reign.
The 5th year of Y's exile was the 12th year of N's reign.
[insert about 30 years here]
The 35th year of Y's exile was the 42nd year of N's reign.
The 36th year of Y's exile was the 43rd year of N's reign.
The 37th year of Y's exile was the 44th year of N's reign.

So: If Evil Merodach became king in the 37th year of Yehoyachin's exile, that was the 44th year of Nevuchadnetzar, *not* the 45th.

The key to understanding this is that the first year of Yehoyachin's exile was the eighth year of Nevuchadnetzar. The only way to get to the number 45 is by considering the first year of Yehoyachin's exile to be *after* the eighth year of Nevuchadnetzar. But it wasn't. Yehoyachin's exile did not begin after the 8th year; it began *during* the eighth year.

My chavrusa and I spent much time trying to figure out where our error was, but then we found an Acharon who said the same thing as us. Most larger gemaras include the "Hagahos v'Chidushim al Maseches Megillah" of Rav Shmuel Shtrashun of Vilna in the back. He is quoted as "Rashash" in ArtScroll on this daf (11b, notes 17 and 38), and perhaps not coincidentally he has a direct descendant who lives in our community and is a friend of ours.

Rashash does not use the number "44" explicitly, but his meaning is quite clear. He writes: "Bavel will lose yet another year below, because also when we counted above that '8 plus 37 makes 45', the 8th year of Nevuchadnetzar is the very same as the first (year) of Yoyachin's exile."

Unfortunately, Rashash does not explore the ramifications of this calculation. Any calculations of the 70 years which are based on Nevuchadnetzar reigning for 45 years are mistaken, according to Rashash. Yet Rashi *does* seem to hold by the 45 years.

My chavrusa and I would be greatly appreciative if anyone can offer any explanations or chronologies which can reconcile Rashi and Rashash, which can show how the Gemara's ultimate explanation of the 70 years can fit with this 44-year idea. Or show that Rashash is mistaken.

Thanks.

Akiva Miller

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