[Avodah] Pesach at equinox (formerly: YT Sheini Shell Golah and the Internet )

[D&E-H Bannett]

On the posting that Pesach is getting later and later in the 
year and the statement that <<"2215 Pesach will begin on 
April 25th.">>, R' Micha calculated that it will happen 
again only in the very distant future and, therefore, 
nothing to worry about.

Pesach will not be after chodesh ha'aviv in 2215, but rather 
in 2214. But in addition to this minor slip, there is a 
"slight" error in the logic.

Using average solar and lunar years for the calculations 
tells us nothing. If we remember that we have a 19-year 
cycle with seven leap years, each with an added month in 
that cycle, it becomes obvious that Pesach moves back and 
forth depending on the year. In leap years, Adar Sheni 
delays Pesch by a month making it late in the solar year.  I 
turns out that Pesach is latest in the eighth year of the 
cycle and only slightly less late in years 19 and 11.

Pesach in Chodesh Ha'aviv is not a problem for the future 
but one that already exists.  For example, in 2005 (year 8 
of cycle), the first day of Pesach was on April 24th. In 
2016 (year 19), it will be on April 23.

In year 8, the worst case, Pesach has not been in Chodesh 
Ha'aviv for well over 400 years  and has gradually begun to 
appear in the other leap years as well.

Many suggestion have made to correct the luach but, in the 
absence of a Sanhedrin, we will not ever have full agreement 
among the posekim so nothing is done.

I quote R' Rahamim Sar-Shalom a luach expert: In 1538 
inTzefat 25 rabbanim gave semikha to R' Yakov Bei-Rav and he 
gave semikha to four others including R' Yosef Caro.  R' 
Levi ben Haviv, the rav of Yerushalayim, objected strongly. 
Among the objections was his "fear" that appointment of a 
bet din of musmakhim would lead to to many s'fekot in 
renewing kiddush hachodesh and 'ibur hashana.

BTW, the basic question is whether chodesh ha'aviv is 
astronomical or agricultural and how accurate we have to be.

When I questioned  R' Levi Yitzhak Halperin some years ago 
on late Pesach, he replied that we needn't be astronomically 
accurate and Mashiach would come long before the situation 
deteriorated further.


kvh"t,

David