[Avodah] Is Smoking Mutar?

[Zev Sero]

Arie Folger wrote:

> This problem is dealt with by looking at the cumulative statistics and the 
> chance of reversing the negative effects by changing habits.
>
> Except that ushmartem meod lenafshotekhem is not obligatory where shomer 
> petaim haShem applies. In other words, risks that are acceptable in society 
> are not considered sufficiently dangerous. Smoking is nowadays considered 
> unacceptably dangerous, and to a [much] lesser extent, living in highly 
> poluted areas. Being a police officier or fireman, while dangerous, is not 
> considered unacceptable societally (noch git; can you imagine a society 
> without them? Only in moshiach's tzeiten).
> 
> Eating oneself into obesity is slowly becoming unacceptable, and dieting may 
> hence become halakhicly obligatory for some.
> 
> KNLAD to understand R' Bleich's then statement.

I still don't understand the basis for what seems like a reversal of
R Bleich's position as he published it.  IIRC he explained his position
then as based on the fact that all the examples the gemara gives for
"venishmartem" are of immediate dangers.  Therefore we have no basis to
forbid acts that merely add to the probability that one will die a little
earlier, many years down the road.  I don't understand how tipping that
probability from 49% to 51% changes anything; we still don't have any
basis in the gemara for supposing that "venishmartem" applies to such an
act.

-- 
Zev Sero                    A mathematician is a device for turning coffee
zev at sero.name               into theorems.                   - Paul Erdos