[Avodah] A shemitta miracle story

[Dov Bloom]

 Zev Sero wrote: And yet it did for the people of Mevo Horon, who put their trust in it. 
I had written : Anyone in Eretz Yisrael who looks at agricultural economics knows that  last year (5767) was not a great year at all! Certainly it did not give a threefold yield (I meant 3 times normal)

I did some agricultural research, because the referenced article by the gentleman from Mevo Horon described their agricultural yield in a very unorthodox manner, by stating that they sowed X tons of wheat and yielded 40 times as much without stating the acreage (or dunam-age). In general agricultural yields in Israel are stated in kilograms per dunam (which is about 1/4 acre, 1/10 of a hectare or 1000 square meters). How much was sowed is usually irrelevant. People want to know yield per dunam. I suspected the (partisan - if you read the article - about boosting the "bracha" aspect) author was hiding something by using this unusual method of reporting yield.

The normal weight of wheat planted in present day Israel is 13-17 kg/duman. This figure is for  areas that have decent rainfall or are irrigated. If you plant in the negev or dry areas cut this in half - and your yield is also halved. My yield figures are for a average rainfall area (non-irrigated) or an irrigated field. One generally wants to have 500-550 mm of rainfall and/or irrigation. Some coastal areas get up to 800 rainfall. So if you get 300 mm rain you'd irrigate 200.

A good yield (this varies very much by area, and by rainfall that year) is 575-600 kg/duman in our area (northern negev, irrigated). 500 is fair. Less than 500 is not good. 650 is very good. The regional high in my area was 1200kg/dunam - an exceptionally high yielding single field. 
Mevo Horon is in a part of Israel with 400-600 mm rainfall on average, as opposed to my area with 300-400. These rainfall figures are according to an Israeli popular Atlas.

Assuming an average sowing of 15 kg/dunam, the reported 40 fold yield of Mevo Horon would be about 600 kg/dunam. Nice but not earth shattering, nowhere near even 50% over average and certainly not 2 or3 times a standard wheat yield in EY nowadays. So the Mevo Horon story is more polemic than real "ness mi-shamayim". 

We also can understand in light of these figures that Yitzhak Avinu's Meah Shearim (hundred fold yield) in Breishit 26:12 was amazing for ancient times and would be still nowadays with modern agricultural methods, sprays and fertilizers, be more than outstanding ! However 40 fold today in the "shmitta miracle story" is not more than good or very good.

I would expect a bracha for Am Yisrael to be more than for 1 small settlement, which the article lauds for being the only moshav/kibbutz to totally halt their field crops. Were there a bracha D'oraita it would be evident to all during the 6th year, thus encouraging all to take note of the mitzvot of shmitta. It is clear from the pasuk that the bracha that would reassure Bnei Yisrael happens before the 7th year. Otherwise it wouldn't reassure. 

Of the major Poskim who paskened in Agricultural issues over the last 100 years, and certainly for the last 60 (like all the Chief Rabbi's Ashkenazi and Sefardi until this year, all the heads of the Mitzvot Hatluyot Cmtte and Shmitta Cmmt like Rav Shaul Yisraeli, Rav Ariel, Rav Daum, even the present R Yosef and R Whitman ) I never saw one argue that there was a bracha from the Torah. They usually say meforosh the opposite. R Yisraeli's writings were recently referred to on Avoda. See ROY Yechave Daat V 4 53, (Daat Rabim VeAtzumim MiGedolai Yisrael - who supported the heter mechira), or Yabia Omer V 3 19 siman zayin.

Sefer HaShmitta of R YM Tukuchinsky on pages 68-70 gives the epistle of those gedolei Yerushalayim who violently opposed the heter mechira, which was promolgated by R Yitzhok Elchonon Spector, R Mohliver and others in 5649. 

R YH Zonnenfeld and RS Salant opposed the heter 100% and gave various and many halachic arguments against it. But an assured bracha? They say things like "we are sure that shmitta observance will be for a bracha" (veAnachnu tomchim uVetuchim ki shvitat haAretz tihye lebracha) implyng that afterwards an undetermined bracha will be on the observant. 

The epistle of these heter opponents in 5649 ends by saying: VeHashem shofteinu hu yoshienu veYitzave et birchato im raglei haMevaser. They are using the phraseology of the pasuk in Vayikra 25 VeTziviti et birchati , but placing their hopes for the bracha in the time of Raglei Mevaser = the time of mashiach. 

None of these gedolim who opposed RYE Spector's heter suggested (as the fellow from Beit Horon and some posters did ), let alone promised the kiyum of the bracha nowadays before the shmitta year. 

Poskim le-hud and story-tellers le-hud. 

And even the story tellers don't tell such convincing stories when you check their facts and figures.