[Avodah] how many died in the Midbar each year?

[Galsaba at aol.com]

Reading Ta'anit Daf 30, I do not understand how many died each year.
I read Mefarshim that calculated simple.  60 Ribbo / 40 years = 1.5 Ribbo a 
year = 1,500.
Then I read Tossafot that says 21,000.  Where can I find one?

One of the explanations I heard is that the 40 years are calculated from 
leaving Egypt. As the spies were sent on the second year, and the gezera was made 
thirs year, then we have 38 years left.  The last one was forgiven, now 37.  9 
years out of the 40 Tish'sh B'Av fell on Shabbat, and as they were not 
allowed to dig graves on Shabbat, we have 37 - 9 = 28 years.
28 years x 21,000 = 588,000.
630,000 left Egypt.  630K - 588K=24,000.
24,000 /  28 years = 860 , and this is the "protrot" that Tosafot talks about.

Am I right?

thanks,
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