[Avodah] establishing mamzerut

[Arie Folger]

RMB wrote:
> So besach hakol we're in reality talking about only two different sorts of
> evidence:
> 1- A match between the agunah's husband and the niftar (#1, above); and
> 2- a paternity match between the husband and the child (#3).
>
> I presume that #3 is far lower in accuracy, since it's more complicated to
> find that 50% of the DNA match than to find that 100% do. So, for mamzeirim
> there would be more of a chance of a false match. And, we need a lower
> confidence level lehatir, ie a lower error rate on a false match, potential
> mamzeirim anyway.
>
> So, why would accepting the evidence for agunos necessitate accepting DNA
> testing for mamzeirim?

First of all, yasher koach for introducing Bayesian statistics in laymen's 
terms. Theoretically, you are right that one might be able to accept DNA 
against 'igun and yet save mamzerim. That is precisely one of my points. The 
anonymous speaker whom I, along with so many other participants of the said 
conference, criticize, considered the problem DNA testing brings along at 
least as great as the benefit.

Of course, that speaker's argument my not be about the accuracy of DNA testing 
in each of the above cases, but about the likelihood of DNA testing being 
used in certain kinds of cases. Biological mamzerim are probably more common 
than 'agunot that can only be freed through the acceptance of DNA testing. 
Hence, said speaker worries more about the more common potential problem.

At any rate, I wouldn't be surprised if solid paternity testing based on DNA 
is, while much less reliable than a match against the person's own tissue, 
still sufficiently accurate to be hard to ignore in a case of alledged 
mamzerut.

Kind regards,

Arie Folger