[Avodah] tannur shel achnai

[Saul Mashbaum]

RMB and RRw discussed probability and the halachot of rov and safeq.
RRW noted that  "And I still don't get the logic for kavua nor have I
heard an explanation that clicks with me so far."

I *highly* recommend "Resolving Uncertainty: A Unified Overview of
Rabbinic Methods",
a comprehensive treatment of this subject, by Moshe Koppel, a talmid
chacham and mathematician,  at
http://u.cs.biu.ac.il/~koppel/rov-25.5.pdf.

In this paper, the classic rabbinic concepts of safeq, rubba d'ita
kaman, rubba d'leta kaman and kavua are clearly described in terms of
fundamental probabilty concepts. It is written for the educated
layman, with no complicated formulas or intimidating (to some)
mathematical symbols or notation.

In particular, kavua is discussed in great detail in pages 10-15 of
this 24-page double-spaced paper. Very briefly, the case of kavua is
"indeterminant" (an alternative term considered is "hybrid"), such
that the uncertainty involved canot be resolved by the relative
probablities of the possible outcomes. This is what the term "mechtza
al mechtza" implies.

This paper is IMO a must read for anyone with an interest in this subject.

Saul Mashbaum