[Avodah] tannur shel achnai

[kennethgmiller at juno.com]

R' Micha Berger wrote:
> Second, because there isn't even clarity that the model
> involves statistics at all. For example, sefeiq sefeiqa
> would become rov is we map uncertainty to statistics.
> However, that would also mean that safeiq plus mi'ut
> would become rov -- 50% + 5% is still greater than 50%.
> But in practice, mi'ut bemaqom sofeiq lo amrinan!

Just as an aside, I once heard an interesting explanation of sfeik sfeika which had nothing to do with probability or statistics. 

Namely: Everyone knows that "Safek d'Oraisa l'chumra", but it is not the Torah which requires us to do so. According to the Torah (so this person said) we only need to follow the Torah when there is a vadai chiyuv or a vadai issur. If there is a *genuine* safek (whatever that might mean), the Torah allows us to do what we want, and it is "only" d'rabanan that we are told to go l'chumra.

Therefore, in the case of a genuine sfeik sfeika, what we actually have is a safek on whether or not the "safek d'Oraisa l'chumra" rule is in effect. In other words, it is a safek d'rabanan. And on that, even the rabanan allow us to go l'kula.

Does that sound familiar to anyone? I once knew of a proof to it, but I've long forgotten it.

Akiva Miller

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